How Biden’s climate plan stacks up against IEA’s net-zero roadmap
We break down IEA’s milestones to achieve net zero, and how the U.S.’s climate ambitions stack up.
When it comes to American climate action, Joe Biden’s been a bit of a trailblazer. Already Biden has rejoined the Paris Agreement, overturned 34 Trump-era rollbacks, and set the framework for a 50–52% cut in United States’ emissions by 2030.
But all these actions may still not be enough, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. The 224-page report lists more than 400 milestones needed for the world to hit net zero by 2050 (the consensus mark for avoiding a climate catastrophe), and Biden’s goals could fall well short.
For those of us drunk on Biden’s early climate achievements, the report served as a brutal hangover, one that even greasy junk food won’t fix. For this post, I’ll break down some of the report’s most notable milestones needed to achieve net zero, and how the U.S.’s new climate ambitions stack up.
1. By 2040, the global electricity sector reaches net-zero emissions
Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan focuses heavily on clean energy, proposing a mandate that requires utilities to increase their use of renewable energy sources. The goal is to hit 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035.
That seems to match up with the IEA’s recommendation of net-zero electricity emissions by 2040, though since we’re dealing on a global scale, the U.S. will need to increase its climate aid to developing countries, the subject of a recent post by my colleague Sam.
2. The amount of solar and wind power added is quadrupled every year till 2030
At a global scale, quadrupling solar and wind power is the equivalent of installing the world’s current largest solar park every day between now and 2030. Though that’s probably the most jarring statistic of the entire report, the Biden administration has made some strides on this front.
Biden’s “Buy America” executive order aims to expand the domestic manufacturing of solar panels, something that will help the country reach 100% renewable electricity by 2035. And recently, he approved the nation’s first major offshore wind farm, located in Massachusetts, while advancing offshore wind developments in California.
But we’ll still need a complete overhaul of the grid, as well as continued advances in battery storage, to pull off a true transformation.
3. By 2035, new gas-powered passenger car sales are halted
Biden has been unapologetic in his love for electric vehicles (EVs). But his plan has stopped short of recent orders by Washington and California, which have banned gas-powered vehicles by 2030 and 2035, respectively. Instead, Biden is relying on government incentives and market forces to initiate the transition to EVs.
Biden’s infrastructure plan proposes spending $174 billion on electric vehicles, which includes building 500,000 electric charging stations, electrifying bus fleets, and offering incentives to make and buy American-made EVs. America’s two biggest car companies, Ford and GM, have taken note, each recently unveiling massive pushes toward EVs.
4. From today, stop investing in new fossil projects, and by 2030, phase out coal plants
Biden has taken a hard stance on fossil fuels. On his first day in office, he came out swinging, canceling the Keystone XL pipeline and banning oil and gas leases on federal lands (though that’s looking temporary). And his recent tax plan would replace subsidies for fossil fuels with incentives for clean energy.
But Keystone aside, the administration has been silent on other pipeline battles, including the Dakota Access Pipeline and the Line 3 through Minnesota, as Grist points out.
As far as coal goes, it’s unlikely Biden will allow any new coal plants to go up, if only because they don’t make economic sense any more. In fact, more coal plants were retired under Trump than Obama. That trend will need to continue and likely accelerate.
The U.S. is just one part of the puzzle
Of course, global goals don’t translate perfectly for individual countries’ responsibilities, so take this exercise with a grain of salt. Still, the IEA’s milestones offer a guide for countries seeking to follow through on their recent climate pledges, while encouraging others to do the same.
As Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director, said in a statement, “Moving the world onto that pathway requires strong and credible policy actions from governments, underpinned by much greater international cooperation.”
Thanks to decades of work by climate scientists, we know the extent of the problem. And with IEA’s new roadmap, we now have the step-by-step guide for addressing it.